Management of biofuel production development on the basis of scenario planning

Abstract

The aim of the article is to substantiate the methodological approaches of scenario planning in the management of biofuel production development. The following methods were used in order to achieve the goal: cross-factor analysis, scenario planning method, expert methods, and scenario tree. The study analyzed primary energy consumption by economic sector and the total supply of primary energy by source, resulting in a declining supply of non-renewable energy sources such as oil, gas, coal and growing supply of biomass and waste, which was a source of biofuel production. The grouping of biofuel properties from the point of view of its attractive-ness as an alternative energy resource was carried out. Factors that can negatively affect the pace of development of biofuel production are systematized. Dominant factors that had a critical impact on the development of biofuels have been identified: fluctuations in prices for electricity production in the traditional way, change in the popularity of greenhouse gas emission reduction programs, fluctuations in the use of electric vehicles, fluctuations in prices for fossil fuels, change in funding for programs to reduce environmental pollution and climate change. Stages of scenario planning with the use of cross-factor analysis were offered. A scenario tree model was formed. A matrix of cross-influence was constructed using expert evaluation and a scale of relations. The procedure of cross-influence and determination of dominant factors influencing the development of the activity “biofuel production” was proposed, which was characterized by the use of cross-factor analysis, which allowed assessing the probability of scenarios, establishing the interaction between them, and further calculating the expected effect from the implementation of measures. Applied research results and scenario assessments of the development potential of this area of activity can be used by entrepreneurs in the context of development and further implementation of investment projects for biofuel production. © 2020, Kaunas University of Technology. All rights reserved. Author keywords Alternative energy resources; Biofuels; Cross-factor anal-ysis; Cross-impact matrix; Development factors; Scenario planning Indexed keywords