The Monitoring of the Livestock Product Market for the Formation of Food Security

Abstract

The imbalance of the livestock product market due to significant challenges, such as large-scale military actions, reduced purchasing power, and changes in citizens' diets, presents other threats to food security. The influx of threats leads not only to a significant differentiation in the balance of demand and supply for meat and meat products by regions and strata of the population but also to a significant dynamism of the entire livestock market. This determines the need for changes in the methodology for monitoring and evaluating dynamic changes in the parameters affecting the production and consumption of livestock products. This study aims to establish the peculiarities of monitoring the livestock market under significant dynamic changes in the main parameters affecting production and consumption volumes. The objectives of this study were to establish integral trends in the production of the main types of livestock products and to develop a mathematical model for evaluating the balance of production and consumption of livestock products. A break in the trend of stability of the pig and poultry population in 2021 and the continuation of the long-term trend of reduction in the cattle population was established, as evidenced by changes in the number of animals from 2023 to 2021: for cattle, by 20%; for pigs, by 16%; and for poultry, by 11%. This indicates that significant short-term fluctuations in influencing factors cause the production and consumption forecasts to be irrelevant. The influence of threats determines the deformation of markets for the production and consumption of livestock. This necessitates assessing dynamic changes in parameters affecting the volume of production and consumption of livestock products and the prompt formation of forecasts. The developed mathematical model for assessing the balance of production and consumption of livestock products allows for considering dynamic changes in the main parameters of influence, which ensures the relevance of forecasts. This will enable prompt implementation of measures to regulate food security.