STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MACEDONIAN GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES FOR THE PERIOD 2006 – 2013

Abstract

The main purpose of the present study is to develop a statistical analysis of the government expenditure for Macedonia during the period January 2006- September 2013 The source of the official data is the Macedonian Institute of Statistics. The Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem, “fair game” concept in the sense of Stein-Vorobiev, Kolmogorov- Smirnov- Lilliefors test and Shapiro- Wilk test are applied. The government expenditure is estimated based on current price or as a percentage of GDP. Some results of the present study include: · The official data of quarterly government expenditure for Macedonia during the period January 2006- September 2013 contradicts the CLT at the confidence level 95%. · The official data of quarterly government expenditure expressed as a fraction of GDP for Macedonia during the period January 2006-September 2013 satisfies CLT at the confidence level 95%. · The government expenditure process in Macedonia during the period January 2006-September 2013 is an unfair game at the confidence level 95%. · The government expenditure as a fraction of GDP in Macedonia during the period January 2006- September 2013 is a fair game at the confidence level 95%. · The official data of quarterly GDP for Macedonia during the period January 2006-September 2013 satisfies CLT at the confidence level 95%. · The quarterly GDP in Macedonia during the period January 2006-September 2013 is an unfair game at the confidence level 95%.